On June 3, global research and advisory firm, Gartner, released a report in which they state that 90% of enterprise blockchains would become obsolete by 2021.
The report states that enterprise blockchains, in order to “remain competitive, secure, and avoid obsolescence”, will require replacement within 18 months. It posits that, due to a lack of core application requirements, feature sets and more, there will be no single dominant platform, making it difficult for IT entities to make decisions.
Adrian Lee, senior research director at Gartner, said,
Due to the lack of an industry consensus on product concept, feature set, core application requirements and target market, we do not expect there to be a single dominant blockchain platform within the next five years. Instead, we expect a multiplatform world to emerge.
However, it does say that by 2025 blockchain will add more than $176 billion in business value and over $3.1 trillion by 2030.
Gartner Also Believes that the Supply Chain Blockchains Will Suffer
Another report released earlier this year specifically mentions supply chain blockchains, saying that supply chain initiatives would suffer from “blockchain fatigue” due to a “lack of strong use cases.”
Gartner conducted a supply chain technology survey with over 300 participants in which only 19% of them ranked blockchain as a very important technology, and only 9% had invested in it. The report goes on to say that organizations have difficulty in targeting specific high-value use cases and that blockchain development itself is time-consuming and tedious – with them running multiple pilot programs until they hit upon a success.
Alex Pradhan, senior principal research analyst at Gartner, elaborated,
Supply chain blockchain projects have mostly focused on verifying authenticity, improving traceability and visibility, and improving transactional trust. However, most have remained pilot projects due to a combination of technology immaturity, lack of standards, overly ambitious scope and a misunderstanding of how blockchain could, or should, actually help the supply chain. Inevitably, this is causing the market to experience blockchain fatigue.
The supply chain industry is considered to be one of the primary applications of blockchain technology, and some pilot programs have already been conducted successfully. While there is an argument to be made that there is an oversaturation of projects in the cryptocurrency market, many would argue against the statement that there is a lack of strong use cases in the niche.