- Ethereum had seen a significant price decline totaling over 56% from high to low during November 2018, creating fresh 18-month lows.
- The ETH/USD continues its battle to remain above the $100 handle.
- Support moving forward: $110, $108, $106, $100, $90, $84.03.
- Resistance moving forward: $121.89, $132.28, $135.68, $148.23, $150, $162.72, $181.88, $197, $200.
Ethereum has seen another 1.33% price drop over the past 24 hours of trading as the cryptocurrency now trades at a price around $112, at the time of writing. The market has seen a solid form of stabilization over the previous 7-day trading period where price action saw a small increase totaling 5.64%.
This small 7-day price increase comes after a month of sustained selling which saw Ethereum lose a gruesome 44% over the past 30 trading days. The decentralized platform is now ranked in 3rd position in the market cap rankings and holds a total market cap of around $11.5 billion.
Furthermore, the 40-month old project has seen a price decline totaling over 51% over the past 90 trading days as Ethereum now trades at a value that is an extraordinary 91% lower than its all-time high price seen earlier during the year.
Let us continue to analyze price action for ETH/USD over the long term and assess the market behavior.
Ethereum Price Analysis
ETH/USD – LONG TERM – DAILY CHART
From the long-term perspective above, we can clearly see the extent of the turbulent trading period for Ethereum. The market has been consistently declining throughout the year, and had recently placed fresh 18-month lows during November 2018.
In our previous Ethereum price analysis, we had outlined a symmetrical triangle that ETH/USD had been trading within for over 3 months. We can see that as the market-wide capitulation begin during mid-November 2018, price action plummeted below the lower boundary of the triangle.
The market continued to collapse further, dropping below expected support at $181 and $148. ETH/USD had reached as low as $102 during November 2018, not quite touching the support provided at the downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in green) priced at $100.46.
Let us continue to take a closer look at ETH/USD and proceed to highlight any areas of potential support and resistance.
ETH/USD – SHORT TERM – DAILY CHART
Analyzing ETH/USD from a closer perspective, we can see that during November 2018, ETH/USD had fallen from a high above $225 to a low of $102.20, a loss totaling around 55% from low to high.
The market decline had approached a combined area of support at 2 downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension levels (drawn in orange and purple), priced at $108.08 and $106.98, respectively.
As ETH/USD reached this area of combined support, the bulls began to re-enter the market, preventing price action from heading further closer toward the elusive $100 handle.
We can also notice that for the past 10 trading days the Ethereum market has been trading within a narrow range, trading mainly between the $125 and $106 handles.
Looking ahead, if the buyers within the market can increase their aggression and start to push price action higher, we can expect immediate resistance above to be located at the short-term downside 1.414 and 1.272 FIbonacci Extension levels (drawn in purple), priced at $121.89 and $132.28 respectively.
Higher resistance above this can be located at the medium-term downside 1.414 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in orange) priced at $135.68.
If the bulls can continue to progress above and beyond $140, we can expect more resistance to be located at the bearish .382 and .5 Fibonacci Retracement levels (drawn in red), priced at $148.23 and $162.72,respectively. This Fibonacci Retracement is measured from the entire market decline witnessed during November 2018.
Further higher resistance can be found at the previous long-term downside 1.272 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in green) priced at $181.88, followed by the September 2017 low priced at $197.73.
On the other hand, in our bearish outline, if the sellers continue to pressure the market below the identified support at $106 during December 2018, we can expect immediate significant support below to be located at the downside 1.618 FIbonacci Extension level (drawn in green) priced at $100.46.
The $100 handle is also a big psychological hurdle to penetrate beneath as traders will defend the round number handle as much as possible.
If ETH/USD does manage to break beneath the $100 Schelling point, we can then expect more support beneath to be located at the $90 handle, followed by more support at the medium-term downside 1.414 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in blue) priced at $84.03.
The RSI has risen out of extreme oversold conditions as it makes its way back toward the 50 handle. However, until the RSI breaks above the 50 level, we can only assume that the sellers remain in control of the market momentum.
Let us continue to quickly analyze Ethereum against Bitcoin over the short term and highlight any potential areas of support and resistance moving forward.
ETH/BTC – SHORT TERM – DAILY CHART
For a long-term perspective on ETH/BTC, we recommend revisiting our previous Ethereum analysis.
ETH/BTC has also experienced a troubling month during November 2018 as the market fell from a high of 0.034036 SATS to a low of 0.027310 SATS, a 19.6% price decline. The market decline had found support toward the end of November 2018 at a short-term downside 1.414 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in purple) priced at 0.027353 SATS before the downtrend halted.
ETH/BTC is now trading at resistance provided by the .886 Fibonacci Retracement level (drawn in green) priced at 0.028157 SATS.
Looking ahead, if the buyers can cause price action to break above this resistance level, higher resistance can be located at the previous long-term downside 1.414 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in blue) priced at 0.029025 SATS.
If the bulls can continue to progress even higher above 0.029025, we can expect further resistance above to be located at the previous .618 and .5 Fibonacci Retracement levels (drawn in green), priced at 0.031023 SATS and 0.032284 SATS respectively.
Alternatively, in our bearish scenario, if the sellers regroup and begin to push price action for ETH/BTC lower once again, we can expect immediate support below to be located at the downside 1.414 FIbonacci Extension level (drawn in purple) priced at 0.027353 SATS, followed by more psychological support at the 0.027000 SATS round number handle.
If the bears pressure price action below 0.027, further support below can be expected at the downside 1.618 Fibonacci Extension level (drawn in purple) priced at 0.025867 SATS.